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Feiler forecasts for 2009: bearish USD, Fed rate of 0.50 percent, low government bond yield and budget deficit over 8%

December 11 2008

Dr. Gil Feiler, CEO of Info Prod Research and author of Investing in Russia and Rethinking Business Strategy for the EIU, predicted on Wednesday bearish outlook to the USD against major currencies. He estimated that the Euro will rise to over USD 1.37 by the end of 2009 against 1.30 Wednesday. The GBP will rise to 1.66 by the end of 2009 against 1.4842, and the Japanese Yen per USD will strengthen to 104 against 92.74 currently. The Swiss Franc will rise to SF1.08 per USD compared to 1.1954 Wednesday afternoon.

 

Following the unexampled 10-year bond rally last month, Feiler forecasts very low yields of less than 3 percent during most of 2009. Just during 2010 the yields will register an increase of around 50 base points. No inversion curve is forecasted for 10 years - 2 years or 30 years – 10 years.

 

As for the Fed Funds Target Rate, Feiler believes that the FOMC will cut another 50 basis points at its next meeting next week. Feiler said that the fed fate of 0.50 percent will stay with no change during 2009, while it will increase gradually up to 3 percent at the end of 2010.

 

Feiler predicts huge budget deficit of about $1.25 trillion in 2009 – more than 8 percent of the GDP.

 
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