Moody\'s Investors Service\'s ratings for the major Brazilian banks have stable outlooks, according to its annual report on the nation\'s banking system. According to the report, the ratings are underpinned by the banks\' broad and diversified franchises and by a resilient credit expansion cycle, which have ensured that earnings generation is largely recurrent and sustainable. The report also cites some concerns, which involve tighter capital ratios, harsher competition, the effects of a low interest-rate environment, and the potential for asset quality erosion under rapid loan expansion.
The major bank segment holds an average bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of C+; the average BFSR for all rated Brazilian banks is C. The ratings of most Brazilian banks have recently been upgraded as a result of the implementation of Moody\'s Revised Global Bank Financial Strength Rating methodology, in conjunction with the incorporation of Joint Default Analysis into the BFSR methodology. Recently, Moody\'s has also upgraded Brazil\'s foreign-currency deposit ceiling to Ba2, from Ba3, and foreign-currency bond ceiling to Baa3/Prime-3, from Ba1/Not Prime. As a result of the sovereign action Moody\'s upgraded the long-term foreign-currency bank deposit ratings of selected banks to Ba2, from Ba3, as well as the foreign currency bond ratings of certain banks.
According to the report\'s author, Celina Vansetti Hutchins, \"the operating performance of the major banks has been characterized by high profitability, improving cost efficiency, and stable, though high, delinquency ratios. \"Such financial fundamentals have benefited capital accumulation over time,\" she says, \"resulting in a pool of solid banks, each of which is well positioned to operate in a more stable and competitive economic environment.\"
The analyst adds that \"the major banks\' disciplined risk management, together with adequate pricing and risk monitoring tools, should also support further growth of their balance sheets.\"
\"As real income in Brazil continues to grow -- largely as a result of supportive domestic demand and labor markets -- consumer credit growth seems sustainable, thus increasing opportunities for banking services,\" Ms. Vansetti Hutchins states, \"investments and corporate lending should also be boosted by favorable macro conditions and economic growth, along with increasing capital markets activity.\"
\"That said,\" Ms. Vansetti Hutchins explains, \"these banks have experienced gradual tightening of capital ratios and weakening of asset quality indicators as their loan portfolios grow and season.\" Reserve coverage remains high, but credit costs are increasing relative to core earnings -- a trend also observed in Mexico and Chile.
Ms. Vansetti Hutchins believes that \"an environment of sustained low interest rates is set to challenge Brazilian banks, with competition further altering the system\'s profitability dynamics.\" \"Managements, therefore, will need to deploy their domestic expertise while maximizing capital resources and allocation to defend and, especially, to advance their respective market positions.\"
The report is titled: \"Banking System Outlook 2007: Brazil, Major Brazilian Banks\". |